hello

hello

hello!

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still watching

just a note to say hi

this summer rally was to be expected.

not much for me to comment on, so I will not other than to say that there is now a robust recovery “priced in”.

now way to know how long the enthusiasm lasts, but watching and waiting we shall for a long while . . .

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when the numbers look bad, just make up better ones

excerpt from Fleck re jobs

Unfortunately for the economy, the headline job-loss number is somewhat bogus. It was helped by a birth/death model that assumed 220,000 jobs had been created last month. Even more suspect is the fact that this 220,000 plug factor was boosted 27% year-over-year. The BLS assumed new jobs were being created in financial services and construction, even as it reported actual job losses for those two sectors combined of 89,000 last month—which makes no sense whatsoever. The reality of the situation is that small-business jobs are probably being lost, not created.

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what we are seeing is “money managment”

as practiced by those who run OPM

This morning the indexes “broke through” technical resistance.  This made ridiculously over valued stocks great “buying opportunities” for the herd.

With this break out, I might revise my thoughts of a near term pull back.  Instead we might just see a ramp job into the summer that at some point will implode extremely badly.

Meanwhile sitting it out in gold waiting for the exuberance to wear off is primarily where we sit.

PS If you would like to see an example of how the herd trades - look at GM.  It is a fact that the common shares have zero value.  None.  There is no chance that the common shareholders get anything in bankruptcy.

Yet this morning GM has traded as high as a dollar  

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it is now clear that the market topped last week

we will now see selling probably at least through the end of the month

that this sell off was coming was easy to see.  what is not clear is the extent of the selling.  As stated earlier, I doubt this will lead to a revisiting of the March lows on this move.  Instead, I think we will see maybe 20% down from here followed by a summer rally.  It is this rally that will matter.  It is this rally that in likelihood will allow insight as to how long the joy will continue.

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